Looking at my web logs and getting scared into regular updating WordPress and its modules and its back-end database has convinced me that I do not need all that complexity for a handful of posts per year. Despite the excellent feedback I have received (sadly, mostly from WordPress comment spammers), I decided to simplify and move this small site to the static site generator Hugo that I use for my other sites.

The Monty Hall problem is an interesting example for how much intuition can mislead us in some statistical contexts. Even more disturbing though is, for how long we are prepared to debate and defend an expected result before actually checking our initial guesses using a simple Monte Carlo simulation.

Here is simple simulation implementation the Monty Hall game show problem:

In the TV show “Let’s Make a Deal” the host Monty Hall would offer to game participant the choice of three doors. One of them was hiding a valuable price (eg a car) - behind the other two doors were only two less desirable goats.

Preparing a larger number of slides with R code and plots can be a bit tedious with standard desktop presentation software like powerpoint or keynote. The manual effort to change the example code, run the analysis and then cut and paste updated graphs, tables and code is high. Sooner or later one is bound to create inconsistencies between code and expected results or even syntax errors